October 05, 2006

Hotter Cities Will Endanger Health in Northeast States

Unless we cut use of fossil fuels now, climate heating will make the Northeast states feel like Virginia or Georgia, cities will have over 20 days of hundred-degree highs, destructive winter floods and summer droughts will become more frequent. All during this century, says a team of scientists in a new study released this week that projects the impact of continued human emissions of climate polluting greenhouse gases.

Full report (52 pages): Climate Change in the U.S. Northeast - A report of the Northeast Climate Impacts Assessment (Oct. 2006). Includes some excellent charts and graphs for educators.

This may sound pleasant to those renewing their snow plowing or fuel oil contracts. It will sound less pleasant to those still sore from last summer's electric bill. It will sound particularly bad to the most vulnerable of the 25% of the Northeast population that lives in urban areas.

From the The 8 page summary:
"While summer heat affects us all, extreme heat is a particular concern in big cities. Hot temperatures intensified by the urban heat island effect can create dangerous conditions, especially for the elderly, infants, the poor, and other vulnerable populations. * * * These projections show that conditions dangerous to human health could become commonplace in most of the region’s major urban centers over the course of this century."

From the introductory paragraph of the summary:
Across the Northeast, from Pennsylvania and New Jersey northward to Maine, signs of our rapidly changing climate become clearer each year. Records show that spring is arriving sooner, summers are growing hotter, and winters are becoming warmer and less snowy. These changes are consistent with global warming, an increasingly urgent phenomenon driven by heat-trapping emissions from human activities. New state-of-the-art climate research shows that if global warming emissions continue to grow unabated, the Northeast can expect dramatic temperature increases and other climate changes over the course of this century. If the rate of emissions is lowered, however, projections show the changes will be significantly smaller. Emissions choices we make today—in the Northeast and worldwide—will help determine the climate our children and grandchildren inherit, and shape the consequences for their economy, environment, and quality of life.

Some callouts from the summary or full report:

  • By the end of the century, the typical summer in upstate New
    York may feel like the present-day summer in South Carolina.
  • Most major Northeast cities currently experience no more than
    two days of 100°F weather in the average summer, but on a higher-
    emissions pathway that number could rise to more than 20 days.
  • By the latter part of this century, higher emissions will cut
    by half the number of snow-covered days across most of the region.
  • Streamflow is projected to become more extreme—higher in winter,
    likely increasing flood risk, and lower in summer, exacerbating
    drought. Higher winter flows increase the frequency of ice jams,
    resulting in major flooding and infrastructure damage.

    The Northeast Climate Impacts Assessment (NECIA) is a collaboration between The Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS) and a team of independent experts.

    Question: If New York City would feel like Charleston, what will Charleston feel like? And what about New Orleans?

    Call me unpatriotic, but perhaps its time for our government to stop indulging the fossil fuel lobby and resume protecting the population.

    A two page summary on how government, businesses and individuals can act now to reduce greenhouse gas polluting emissions: Reducing Heat-Trapping Emissions in the Northeast (Union of Concerned Scientists)

    DougSimpson.com/blog

    Posted by dougsimpson at October 5, 2006 07:57 PM